Philadelphia Inquirer: Gerlach's Decisions Renew GOP Hopes for PA

Gerlach's decisions renew GOP hopes for Pa.

Sure he will keep his Sixth District seat, the party can target others.

By Tom Infield

Inquirer Staff Writer

The move not only increased GOP chances of uniting behind Attorney General Tom Corbett in the governor's race; it also improved Republicans' odds of retaining a key seat in the Philadelphia suburbs and upped their hopes for a banner 2010.

With Americans fretting over health care and the economy - and President Obama's approval rating below 50 percent in Pennsylvania polls - Republicans are upbeat about taking back some House seats that Democrats had grabbed from them in recent years.

"I think the Republicans smell blood," said pollster G. Terry Madonna of Franklin and Marshall College. "They think they can start to reverse [their losses] in '06 and '08."

The GOP already was optimistic that former U.S. Attorney Patrick Meehan might be able to recapture the Seventh District seat, based in Delaware County, that Democrat Joe Sestak is relinquishing to run for the U.S. Senate.

Now comes word that, after sitting out a 2008 rematch against Democratic U.S. Rep Patrick Murphy, who defeated him in 2006, former U.S. Rep. Michael Fitzpatrick may be ready to challenge Murphy in the Eighth District, which covers Bucks County and parts of Montgomery County and the Northeast.

Harry Fawkes, Bucks County GOP chairman, said Friday that he expected a decision from Fitzpatrick within five days. He said Fitzpatrick would give Republicans a "pretty good" shot at winning.

The GOP has also set its eyes on a number of other Democratic seats in Pennsylvania that it thinks are in play because of the shifting national mood. An early hint of that might have been seen in November, when Republicans won six of seven appellate-court judicial races in Pennsylvania.

But as the Republican Party goes on offense, it must try to defend the ground it holds. That's where Gerlach comes in.

A battle-tested candidate, Gerlach can expect big-money support from the National Republican Congressional Committee in his effort to retain GOP control of the Sixth District, which spans portions of Chester, Montgomery, and Berks Counties.

Gerlach said Thursday that he was dropping out of the May 18 gubernatorial primary because he was having trouble raising money for a statewide campaign.

After he announced Friday that he would run again for his House seat, Congressional Quarterly moved the contest from its widely watched "toss-up" list to its "leans Republican" list.

"Gerlach has saved that seat for Republicans. I think they would have lost it otherwise," said Larry J. Sabato, who conducts election forecasting at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

Marcel Groen, veteran Democratic chairman of Montgomery County, said Gerlach was probably the front-runner. Democrats haven't sorted out their crowded field of primary candidates.

But Groen said Democrats would concede nothing to the GOP this year - not in the suburbs, not elsewhere in Pennsylvania, not anywhere.

"Twelve months ago, Democrats assumed that the Republican Party in the Northeast was dead," Groen said. "We were wrong . . . but they haven't accomplished much yet."

What Republicans do have now is enthusiasm. Here and across the country, the party seems buoyed by Obama's slumping popularity and what it views as Democratic overreaching in Washington on health care and stimulus spending.

But Groen said that's now; the election is in November. He said Democrats would see what was at stake and become fired up. The election "is a long, long way ahead," he said.

Two years after any new president takes office, his party typically takes a beating at the polls.

Sabato said, "There are exceptions in American history, but not many."

Most forecasters predict Republicans will pick up between 20 and 30 House seats. To do that, they probably need to grab at least one in Pennsylvania.

Strong GOP candidates like Fitzpatrick who were reluctant to run in 2008, when Obama was leading a Democratic surge, have begun stepping forward this year.

"All of a sudden, the Republicans are coming out of the woodwork because of the [political] environment," Madonna said.

Democrats hold 12 of 19 U.S. House seats in the state.

Republicans say that beyond the Philadelphia region, they may have a shot at knocking off Democratic Rep. Paul Kanjorski, whose 11th District is in the Wilkes-Barre area. Kanjorski may again face Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta, who was thought to have a good chance of winning in 2008 but got swept aside by the Obama tide.

Republicans have reevaluated upward their chances against Chris Carney in the 10th District, in northeastern Pennsylvania, and perhaps against Democrat Tim Holden in the 17th District, in south-central Pennsylvania. They think they may also have a chance against two other Democratic incumbents in the western part of the state.

But the Democrats still have huge advantages in much of Pennsylvania. To start with, they have 1.2 million more registered voters than Republicans.

"The Democrats are not very enthusiastic right now," Madonna said. "The Republicans are more enthusiastic."

But that can change.